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NEW YORK, November 12, 2013 –The fiscal month of November got off to a positive start propelled by a number of factors – lower gasoline prices, cold weather and easy sales comparisons – which provided retailers with a healthy uptick in sales. Overall for the week ending November 9, 2013 weekly retail sales increased by 1.2%, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index. On a year-over-year basis, the pace of sales rose by 2.3%.

“Sales picked up in the first week of the November sales period as cold weather, lower gasoline prices, an easy comparisons with the Hurricane Sandy and likely some improving employment news all came together to spur demand,” said Michael Niemira, ICSC vice president of research and chief economist. “But even with that said, the ICSC-Goldman consumer holiday tracking survey found that consumers may be holding off their holiday shopping a bit relative to the last two years at the comparable time, possibly waiting for this year’s Thanksgiving week promotions,” Niemira added.

For the month, ICSC Research forecasts an increase of 3.5-4.5% year-over-year gain with a bias on the stronger side due to the easy comparison with November 2012 and added shopping hours on Thanksgiving Day.

Week Ending Index 1977=100 Year/Year Change Weekly Change
09-Nov-13 544.6 2.3% 1.2%
02-Nov-13 538.2 1.9% -0.6%
26-Oct-13 541.6 2.2% -0.4%
19-Oct-13 543.8 3.2% 1.4%

The Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot is produced by the International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs. This index measures U.S. nominal same-store or comparable-store sales excluding restaurant and vehicle demand. The weekly index is constructed as a sales-weighted geometric average growth rate to preserve long-term consistency and is statistically benchmarked to a broad-based monthly retail industry sales aggregate that currently represents a sampling of leading retail chain stores, which also is compiled by ICSC. A representative sample of those major retailers has been used as a control group to extrapolate the weekly sales index. As such, the weekly index statistically represents industry sales and is not just a sum of sales for a handful of retailers. The standard period used for the index is Sunday through Saturday, even though some retailers use a different weekly accounting period. The weekly sales index is presented on an adjusted basis to account for normal seasonality and to counter other data anomalies. Weekly seasonal adjustment is at best difficult for chain store sales given that retailers can and often do shift promotions to counter typical shifts in the calendar. Nonetheless, the approach to weekly seasonal adjustment used follows from the Piser Method, which was popular in the early 1930s and became the standard for weekly adjustment.

Courtesy ICSR PRESS RELEASE

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